44118太阳成城集团(China)APP官网-BinG百科

Title: News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

 

Lecturer: Liugang SHENG

 

Host: Shiyuan PAN

 

Time: 3:30-5:00 p.m., 15 Jan 2016                                     

 

Location: 418 meeting room, School of Economics (Yuquan Campus)

 

All the teachers and students are welcome to attend the lecture!

 

 

Liugang SHENG（盛柳剛）

PhD in Economics, University of California, Davis

Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, CUHK

Director of the Trade and Development Programme, Economic Research Centre, HKIAPS

 

Professor Liugang Sheng is an assistant professor of the Department of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and the director of the Trade and Development Programme of the Economic Research Centre at Hong Kong Institute of Asian Pacific Studies. His research interests cover many topics in international trade, international finance, labor market, and China economy.He has many publications in reputable international and Chinese journals, including Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Pacific Economic Review, China Economic Quarterly, and Law and Social Sciences. Professor Sheng received his bachelor and master from Peking University and PhD from University of California, Davis.

 

This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ̶ the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order topredict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.